By now everyone is talking about it Coronavirus is the main topic on the agenda for these weeks and even if we hope that a solution can be found soon to put an end to this emergency, it will probably be the same for the following ones.
In this article we try to draw the lines of hypotheses about what they could be the economic consequences of the Coronavirus in Italy.
Those who read the following lines should keep their critical thinking skills close, avoiding seeing prophetic elements in what is written or panicking, since the one proposed below is an article of reflection and not a information service.
Without presuming to cause controversy or to increase further anxieties and doubts about an international phenomenon, the consequences of which are currently not entirely predictable, we can begin by saying that, in fact, it is very complicated to be able to find the right words and adjectives to speak of this sensitive topic that is literally bringing the economy to its knees. Yes, because, risk or not risk of a real epidemic and according to some sources a pandemic, it is the economic structure of various sectors of our beautiful country that loses the pen, with import anti percentage declines in GDP.
The opinions given by the main sources of information and communication appear, in some cases, opposite and conflicting. Fortunately, serious and authoritative newspapers are making an effort to provide accurate information to citizens through reliable sources and thanks to the collaboration and experience of professionals from different fields.
The question is: what is the truth? Perhaps no one yet knows the official truth about how it all began, perhaps there is but now almost no one is able to distinguish what must be taken for good and therefore credible and what must be taken with a grain of salt to verify its reliability.
We find ourselves in a situation that appears new in the eyes of all humanity. After years and years of apparent calm, where distances have shortened thanks to the intensification of the means to travel, which at affordable prices allow you to move from one end of the world to the other in a short time and where technology has imposed its supremacy outside and inside the house, today we find ourselves experiencing social phenomena that seemed distant to us, those we have known through scientific documentaries or studied in history books.
Here we return to talk of fear of foreigners, of accusations resulting from the rampant psychosis, against those who today have no other fault than that of being born in China. Attention, not to come from China after a trip as individuals of different nationalities could do, but precisely to have Chinese origins; among other things after the reporting of cases of Coronavirus also here in Italy.
Back in vogue the looting phenomenon, this time also in e-commerce. Everyone is talking about the news of the sale of sanitizing products at very high prices and other supposedly effective products to eliminate the risk of viruses. Smarter citizens, fortunately, didn't fall for it, but many others probably did. Here we go back to talking about door-to-door scams with shady individuals who pretend to be doctors sent to their homes to avert the risk of viruses. Here masks, previously sold for a few euros, have the same value as a perfume or a luxury bag.
Thanks to a greater awareness of digital users, everyone says their opinion on the matter and comments and ironic contents are depopulated on the cost of masks and disinfectants. And here, however, that, strangely, when faced with the fright of a virus defined as very dangerous, fear takes over, a fear greater than that caused by the risk of contracting much more serious infections and diseases. Without thinking for a moment longer, a good portion of Italians have begun to empty supermarkets, use public transport less, no longer enjoy the cultural events of their city, no longer go around and no longer spend money.
In recent years, the market of food and travel has grown exponentially, increasing, among other things, job opportunities for young people, that slice of society that has been living in limbo in search of professional fulfillment for years and which now, due to the Corona Virus phenomenon, will be forced to reinvent itself again if it goes on at this rate.
Blocking a business for a week may be acceptable. It would be a bit like a small vacation, a moment of pause to be able to start again in a great way. However, blocking it even just one more day, reaching two weeks and then a month, is a risky choice. So much so that, even when the news of the returned Corona Virus emergency spreads, hopefully as soon as possible, it will be very difficult to get back on track, both for large and small businesses. The chain reactions could be much more serious than one can imagine because, like a domino effect, from producer to consumer, the means of abundance and wealth will never be the same.
How many times have we seen science fiction films with a plot featuring groups of men and women who have to save themselves from a virus that threatens to destroy humanity? Here you are. It seems that fantasy has definitely surpassed reality. It is we, now, who live inside a bubble from which for now we don't know how to get out. But all of this demonstrates one thing above all: the power of the media, of the means of communication, with the risk that some hoaxes are taken for official news.
Just go out for a walk in the centre, even in areas where no cases of Coronavirus have been reported, to realize that even in the most crowded points there is no traffic, that there are few people around as if it were August or the first of the year. On public transport it is increasingly common to see commuters wearing masks and latex gloves. There are those who, in the absence of anything else, cover their faces with a handkerchief or scarf. Inevitably, while at least the supermarkets and disinfectant brands see their turnover increase, the restaurant business suffers the damage.
Hardly anyone goes out for lunch or dinner anymore. In areas considered at risk, restaurants that have closed have had consistent losses of about two thousand euros per day. Multiplying this figure by ten or thirty days, it is easy to imagine the important losses that restaurateurs are having. Adding this also to food and ingredient suppliers who are seeing fewer and fewer requests arriving, it's not that difficult estimate the economic consequences.
If we consider the fact that many restaurant businesses have had an interesting growth in recent years also and above all thanks to the rebirth of tourism in Italy, between suggestive locations and typical products, pausing travel and transfers, eliminating the influx of foreigners and tourists, the economy would suffer a decline, which in turn would also have effects in the hotel sector and gradually in other related sectors.
Just think of the restaurant in a small Italian village which, when it closes, will no longer stock up on its supplies at the local cheese factory or at the nearby market to buy fresh ingredients. A hotel that is always full in the high season will have to downsize its organization and there will be few guests it will direct to this or that restaurant and perhaps it will be the latter who do not want to go there for fear of the virus.
The cradle theaters of art, knowledge and sharing could suffer considerable damage which will affect the artists, who do not have a permanent job and who live on the shows, on the tours that go from city to city. The same goes for museums and for any other place used for public events such as fairs for example: a smaller number of visitors equals a smaller number of tickets sold.
Shopping streets, malls could disappear. Gradually, due to incorrect information and social psychosis, many would begin to no longer want to try on clothes, shoes and so on, to the point of looking suspiciously at someone on a train carriage, sneezing for a banal seasonal cold and nothing more. It would be panic.
On the one hand, they are discovering themselves the advantages of smartworking, possible only thanks to new technologies, to allow employees of some companies to work from home, on the other hand there is a much less reassuring effect: the myriad of information offered every day dramatically increases the social psychosis which is also leading Italians to act following fear and instinct, generating disastrous consequences, before any other what, on the economy and on our dearly loved made in Italy. Yes. Because, between imports and exports, e-commerce could also suffer a setback.
Confectionary companies that ship their products all over the world would see reduced orders to be shipped to various parts of the world, citizens would begin to stop buying anything online, and not only from China, but from anywhere in the world. There sale of raw materials, spare parts or even just fabrics for textile production would suffer a sharp drop and a sharp drop is equivalent to less earnings and less work. In other words: a new economic crisis.
Is this reflection enough to understand that it is time to open your eyes and rely only on reliable sources of information? This is an important reflection to make in light of these facts, since in my opinion this virus has spread more in the minds of many people through continuous exaggerated news broadcast on TV. Each of us, especially those who have panicked the most, must try to think clearly to understand if what they are telling us is how they are telling us or if there is an ulterior motive or incompetence on the part of those who should protect us . Now let's hope that everything will be resolved as soon as possible and that all this will teach us.
